In questa sezione vengono presentati i Sommari di lavori pubblicati su riviste internazionali da parte di soci della Società Idrologica Italiana. Per gli iscritti al SII MAILBASE su richiesta è possibile condividere l'articolo completo
Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology
Pietro Mantovan, Ezio Todini Journal of Hydrology, Volume 330, Issues 1–2, 30 October 2006, Pages 368-381
SOMMARIO The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the incoherence, in terms of Bayesian inference, of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach, introduced by Beven and Binley in 1992. This results into a reduced capacity of the technique to extract information, in other words to "learn", from observations. The paper also discusses the implications of this reduced learning capacity for parameter estimation and hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment, which has led to the definition of the "equifinality" principle. The notions of coherence for learning and prediction processes as well as the value of a statistical experiment are introduced. These concepts are useful in showing that the GLUE methodology defines a statistical inference process, which is inconsistent and incoherent.
A conservative flow routing formulation: Déjà vu and the variable-parameter Muskingum method revisited
Paolo Reggiani, Ezio Todini, Dennis Meißner Journal of Hydrology, Volume 519, Part B, 27 November 2014, Pages 1506-1515
SOMMARIO A wide range of approaches are used for flow routing in hydrological models. One of the most attractive solutions is the variable-parameter Muskingum (VPM) method. Its major advantage consists in the fact that (i) it can be applied to poorly-gauged basins with unknown channel geometries, (ii) it requires short execution time and (iii) it adequately captures, also in the presence of mild slopes, the most salient features of a dynamic wave such as the looped rating curve and the steepening of the rising limb of the hydrograph. In addition, the method offers the possibility to derive average water levels for a reach segment, a quantity which is essential in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment. For reasons of computational economy the method is also appropriate for applications, in which hydrological and global circulation models (GCM) are coupled, and where computational effort becomes an issue. The VPM approach is presented from a philosophical and conceptual perspective, by showing the derivation of its mass and momentum balance properties from the point to the finite scale, and by demonstrating its strengths by means of an application in an operational context. The principal novel contributions of the article relate to (a) the extension of the Muskingum–Cunge–Todini approach to accept uniformly distributed lateral inflow, (b) the use of power law cross sections and (c) the validation of the method through a long-term simulation of a real-world case, including the comparison of results to those obtained using a full Saint Venant equations model.